This chart represents the job losses in percentages from the beginning of the employment recession, instead of showing the number of jobs lost. It should be noted that in terms of percentages the current employment recession is the worst since WWII, and in terms of unemployment rate its the second worst, the worst being in the 1980′s

Source: Calculatedriskblog.com.

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In the last two weeks the market has fallen 6.6% from its recent peak, that’s not even a correction yet. However, the S&P 500 is up 59% from its low in 2009. The graph from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner) represents the four worst bear markets, their patterns and recovery rate.

Volatility has return to what has been a relatively stable market, and many analysts are expecting a large correction to come. I know they’ve been saying that since last summer!

A correction will most likely occur but nobody really knows when, not even the smartest analysts, none of them predicted the mess that happened during December 2008 to March 2009. They can continue every week to say correction will happen, and I can say the Lakers will win the NBA Championship, even if they don’t win it this year (mostly likely they will) they could next year or the year after haha.

Here are a few quotes from analysts. I know their downers; you probably wouldn’t want to take these guys to dinner parties!
Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets, interviewed on CNBC, said During April or May, Cook he expects to see a 20 to 25 percent correction in the markets.
“It wouldn’t surprise me to see a range of 8,800 to 9,000 on the Dow,” he said. “There are a few individual stocks I like, but sector-by-sector, I’m definitely more bearish than what I am bullish.”

Dan Deighan, founder of Deighan Financial Advisors.
“I see the potential for a 25 to 50 percent drop,” he said. “It could be abrupt—it could take a month or so to happen.”
…
“For every dollar that went into stock funds in the last year, 13 dollars went into bond funds—we’ve got a huge, huge bond bubble right now.”

Bill Spiropoulos, chief executive of CoreStates Capital Advisors.
“Short-term, we’re in a little bit of a trouble.”
…
“In the last week, we were looking for a 5 to 10 percent correction, but we think it may be a little bit deeper than that—we’re going to go through 10 percent.”

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The FDIC seized 5 more banks, raising the totaled number of failed U.S banks in 2010 to 15. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has said in the current banking crisis, failures will peak in 2010.

According to the FDIC bank failures from 2009 to 2013 is expected to cost $100 billion. Small(regional) banks are failing due to the loan losses from the credit boom. Many losses are result of the collapsed commercial real estate projects.

Brief Rundown;

Bank                                                                                               Assets                              Deposits

American Marine Bank (Washington)                                 $373.2 million              $308.5 million
First Regional Bank (California)                                           $2.18 billion                   $1.87 billion
Community Bank and Trust (Georgia)                                  $1.21 billion                   $1.11 billion
First National Bank of Georgia (Georgia)                            $832.6 million              $757.9 million
Florida Community Bank (Florida)                                        $875.5 million              $795.5 million
Marshall Bank, National Association  (Minnesota)         $59.9 million                 $54.7 million

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Heres a clip from John Stewart! A little lunch time humor!

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c

Obama Takes On Bankers

www.thedailyshow.com

Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political Humor
Health Care Crisis

//

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The Department of Labor reports unemployment (initial claims) statistics as follows.

 ”In the week ending Jan. 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 470,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 456,250, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 446,750.”

 The 4 week moving averaging of unemployment claims is at its lowest level since September 2008. However, that figure is still high and continued job losses may still be on the horizon.

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The U.S. Census Bureau reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000 New Home Sales in December 2009. That is 8.6% below the December 2008 estimate of 374,000. New Home Sales will be hurting in 2010 with foreclosures expected to peak sometime this year.

This chart shows the monthly new home sales that is not seasonally adjusted.

Chart Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com

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From Fortune – They’re hiring!

Out of Fortune’s 100 best companies to work for; the best 22 companies from that list are hiring with at least 500 openings each, totaling more than 87,750 jobs.

Brief Rundown;

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NAR Press Release: December Existing-Home Sales Down but Prices Rise; 2009 Sales Up
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15.0 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008.
For all of 2009 there were 5,156,000 existing-home sales, which was 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008; it was the first annual sales gain since 2005.
…
Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 6.6 percent to 3.29 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.2-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from a 6.5-month supply in November.
 
• On a percentage basis, the 16.7% monthly decline was the largest on record, dating back to 1968;
• Single-family home sales fell 16.8% (SAAR 4.79 million) and are 12.7% above the 4.25 million level in December 2008.
• Single-family sales rose 5.0% to 4,566,000 in 2009.
• First-time buyers purchased 43% of homes, down from 51% in November, according to a NAR survey.
• Median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,300 in December 2009 — a gain of 1.5% higher vs December 2008.
• Total housing inventory at the end of the year was down 6.6% to 3.29 million existing homes for sale — a 7.2-month supply;
• Raw inventory is 11.1% a year ago, the lowest level since March 2006;
Source Reference: NAR, via ritholtz.com 

Existing Home Sales – Non Seasonally Adjusted

 Graph Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com

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It comes as no surprise that Dubai is in debt crisis, especially after massive spending on infrastructure projects that some would say is; “amazing, ridiculous, crazy, unbelievable, out of this world, and the list continues.”

From the Onion: Dubai Debt Crisis Halts Building Of World’s Largest Indoor Mountain Range

Representatives from the emirate of Dubai announced with disappointment this week that its recent debt crisis has forced developers to halt construction on the city’s long-planned 22-mile-long indoor mountain range.

The culmination of a decade’s worth of ambitious and expensive building projects, Dubai’s estimated $100 billion debt officially brought work on the artificial mountain range to a stop on Tuesday.

“This is a very sad day for the emirate of Dubai,” Crown Prince Hamdan bin Mohammed al-Maktoum told reporters at a press conference held inside the gold-plated anti-gravity chamber in his palace. “Although I believe it is the basic right of all who visit us to be able to scale to the top of a 15,000-foot-tall manmade snowcap, these tough economic times have made it an impossibility. Never before has our proud municipality faced such a grave crisis.”

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The FDIC seized 5 more banks, raising the totaled number of failed U.S banks in 2010 to 9. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has said in the current banking crisis, failures will peak in 2010.

According to the FDIC bank failures from 2009 to 2013 is expected to cost $100 billion. Small(regional) banks are failing due to the loan losses from the credit boom. Many losses are result of the collapsed commercial real estate projects.

Brief Rundown;

Bank                                                                             Assets                              Deposits

Columbia River Bank (Oregon)                          $1.1 billion                     $1 billion
Charter Bank (New Mexico)                                $1.2 billion                    $851.5 million
Evergreen Bank (Washington)                           $488.5 million             $439.4 million
Bank of Leeton (Missouri)                                   $20.1 million                 $20.4 million
Premier American Bank (Florida)                     $350.9 million               $326.3 million

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